[h=1]5-on-5: How many titles coming for Warriors? What's next for OKC?[/h]NBA InsidersESPN INSIDER
Now that the Golden State Warriors have landed Kevin Durant, how will he fit in with their current core? Are multiple titles on the way?
And what's next for the Oklahoma City Thunder?
Our Insiders debate the future after KD's big decision.
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[h=3]1. What's your take on Durant's decision?[/h]Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: I'm happy for Kevin Durant. Playing basketball with players of your talent level is a lot of fun. It's also incredibly lucrative and probably helps his chances to win every time he steps foot into his office. Plus, it makes the NBA a whole lot more exciting.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider:Today, more than ever, athletes are judged by one thing and one thing only: the number of Z's after the word RING. There will be incredible backlash toward this decision today, tomorrow, and this season, but when the banners are hung, they'll only remember KD as a champion.
David Thorpe, ESPN Insider: I see players evolving into being the captain of their ship more often and with more power than ever before, and I applaud it wholeheartedly. When he entered the league, Durant didn't get to pick Seattle (or Oklahoma City), don't forget.
If Apple, Microsoft and Samsung all got to draft engineers after they finished one year of college, is it likely they would all stay with the first company that hired them for their entire careers? Of course not, no matter how well their company was doing or how they were excelling in their role. Such is human nature. We can never know for certain what pushed Durant to California ultimately, but I find it hard to believe he made strictly a basketball decision. He's smarter and more mature than that.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The big thing that's been left out of most KD-to-the-Warriors discourse the past few months is whether it's even a good idea in the first place. A guiding principle for a team that just won 73 games with a fairly young roster ought to have been, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." But as in Miami, maybe sheer talent will overwhelm all concerns.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I'm a little disappointed, since I think the race for the No. 1 seed next year might be over before it even begins. I'm a fan of parity and long, interesting playoff series. Durant signing with the Warriors makes those a little less likely.
Durant couldn't be certain Russell Westbrook would stay in OKC next summer, and saw a great opportunity for winning a ring when he currently has zero. I can certainly understand his decision, even though it seems like he took the easy way out.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: I'm surprised, but I hope that people don't read too much into it in terms of the need to change the collective bargaining agreement. This is a historic fluke. That said, if the league wants to make the creation of super teams more difficult and removes -- or at least increases -- maximum salaries as a result, that wouldn't be so bad.
[h=3]2. How well will Durant coexist with Steph Curry, Klay Thompsonand Draymond Green?[/h]Haberstroh: Durant was the leading scorer on the 2012 Olympics team that won gold while shooting 52 percent from downtown on a squad that featuredLeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant. I think he'll be just fine. Consult my trusty TrueHoopTV video if you have doubts.
Elhassan: There ought to be some sort of adjustment. No one will have as many shots as they did last season. But if we're being honest, Durant should probably be the No. 1 option -- as much as options can be prioritized within Golden State's free-wheeling, motion-heavy offense. Put more simply: Durant might not shoot as much as he did in Oklahoma City, but his looks will be much, much easier.
Thorpe: Those guys recruited him or he wouldn't have made this move to begin with. So he will team up great with them. I was so high on the Big 3 in Miami, even when they struggled out of the gate. I envisioned no possibility that they would fail. I see the same thing here.
More than anything -- and I cannot stress this enough -- I think the Warriors blew their title run because they ran out of gas chasing 73 wins and overcoming OKC. And I think Curry knows that. So sharing the spotlight and scoring loads with Durant all year will be a welcome sacrifice to help them get 16 playoff wins.
Doolittle: Lots of questions that are hard to answer right now: Who gets priority in closing games? Will diminished depth hurt the defense? Will Durant become passive to fit in with an established group? Will marginalized roles lead to resentment from guys like Thompson and Green?
Engelmann: I think it'll work pretty well. People bring up the Heat's Big 3 a lot when looking for historic comparisons, but the Warriors' new Big 3 (or four, really) has more diverse skill sets. All of them are shooters, and Durant and Curry are also very good at driving to the hoop. Wade and LeBron, in contrast, couldn't shoot the 3-pointer particularly well and thus had some trouble with spacing.
Pelton: It's going to be an adjustment. The Warriors are swapping out two players (Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut) who combined to use 27.3 percent of their plays last season with a shot, a trip to the free throw line or a turnover with Durant, whose usage rate in Oklahoma City was higher than that all by himself (30.6 percent).
But that's the kind of adjustment Durant has already made playing with many of these teammates for USA Basketball and will again this summer in Rio. So I think they'll figure things out relatively quickly.
[h=3]3. What's next for Oklahoma City?[/h]Haberstroh: In some ways, they're in the same boat again. Russell Westbrook is a superstar who can leave in a year, just like Durant did this year. Better make Westbrook happy, or else you have to consider trading a top-five player at the deadline, which isn't the worst thing in the world. Letting him leave for nothing is far worse.
Thorpe: To me it's very simple. They need to sit down with Russell Westbrook and determine with finality what his plans are. If he says he wants to hold meetings next summer and see what his options are, trade him. Period.
They have enough talent for a playoff appearance, but if he plans on leaving (which is what they should expect if he won't commit now), then they can look at moving him for an All-Star who needs a new home. Of course, they'll need a team willing to take Westbrook in hopes it can re-sign him.
Elhassan: The unintended consequence of Durant taking three and a half days to come to his decision is that nearly every impact free agent is off the market, leaving OKC in a precarious position. Circle the wagons around Westbrook, while featuring Enes Kanter more heavily as a primary offensive option, and explore the trade market to add assistance on the wings. It ain't pretty, but it never is when one of the best players in the league walks away.
Doolittle: Clearly the priority is to get a read on how Westbrook feels about this startling turn of events. If the Thunder determine that he's a goner, they have no choice but to deal him for the best package of draft picks and young veterans they can find. Possible Band-Aid solutions from this year's free-agent market are gone.
Engelmann: I still very much like the situation they're in -- it certainly beats the situation of about 20 other NBA teams. They have an elite player in Westbrook, one of the better centers in Steven Adams, one of the better young players in Victor Oladipo and this year's No. 11 pick in Domantas Sabonis. Things are still looking good. I'm guessing they'll be a No. 5 seed, barring any big trades to start a rebuild.
Pelton: Under Sam Presti, the Thunder haven't made a habit of losing talent with nothing in return, with this summer's trade of Serge Ibaka the latest example. So if Westbrook signals his intention to leave next summer as a free agent, I would expect Oklahoma City to explore the trade market to try to get a couple of young pieces who can join up with Adams and Oladipo as the team's new core.
[h=3]4. How many games will Golden State win next season?[/h]Haberstroh: 70. I picture the Golden State Warriors following the Cavs' footsteps and putting the car in cruise control throughout the regular season. Durant's presence makes them scarier, but it also allows Curry, Thompson or Green to rest, and still win a ton of games. That flexibility is huge.
Elhassan: Anywhere from 66 to 75. Yes, I can imagine a scenario in which they only lose seven games, but a lot of that depends on how they fill out the rest of their roster. With only the room midlevel exception and minimum deals to offer, they'll have a tough time in this thin free-agent market of finding competent, capable role players. But with Durant, Curry, Thompson, Green, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston all returning, it might not matter.
Thorpe: Hopefully they learned how hollow regular-season records are without a title at the end. So I'll say 65. The West is still loaded and they will get everyone's best again, even though they are not defending champs.
Doolittle: 65. Golden State will be in the thick of the championship race, but as with all declarations of inevitability in sports, you can't take it for granted that they will be any better than they were last season. Basketball rosters aren't additive; 1 plus 1 rarely equals 2. But hey, it'll be fun to watch.
Engelmann: I think they learned from their mistake of chasing history last season. They realized it wore them down in the playoffs. I'm guessing they'll win just enough to be the No. 1 seed, but will otherwise mostly coast. I'd put the over/under at 66 wins.
Pelton: Somewhere in the neighborhood of 70. My suspicion is the Warriors will ultimately be a better team than last season, but still win fewer games because they're unlikely to win quite so many close finishes and because there may be an adjustment period at the start of the season.
[h=3]5. How many titles will Durant win in Golden State?[/h]Haberstroh: I'd take the under on 1.5. The prisoners of the moment may want to predict a dynasty, but Durant can leave after one year, and the Warriors didn't even win it all last season. And Curry's fragility makes me nervous.
There are just too many variables in a league featuring LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Karl Anthony-Towns and an 82-game schedule.
Elhassan: Depends on how long he sticks around. But they are right there every year in which he's wearing Warriors colors, we know that much.
Thorpe: I can see two more titles. It's hard to win it all. There are five or six teams that are growing or current threats to the crown, and in this new era of players being unafraid to move to their competitors, there could be a team that catapults into the forefront in the blink of an eye.
What if Anthony Davis decides to join up with Karl-Anthony Towns? Or Westbrook goes to play with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge? So two is my number, and if I were a betting man, I'd lean toward the under.
Doolittle: One. Over the next few years, the Warriors will be a fixture in the title conversation. They already were. It's easy to imagine them winning another championship and it wouldn't be at all surprising if they won more. But it's a mistake to think the Warriors will simply run roughshod over the league for the next four years.
Engelmann: I'm going to say just one. Curry and Iguodala will be free agents next summer. I can see Curry staying, but it'll be hard to keep Iguodala -- who I think is vital to their success because of his defense -- on the roster, given that other teams can offer more money. Even if he stays, he'll be 33 years old by that point.
Pelton: I'd set the line at two and a half. And I'd probably take the over. The future is more random than we generally think it is, and perhaps we'll be surprised by another event that is as hard to foresee now as Durant signing in Golden State was a couple of years ago. Still, the Warriors are the favorites to win each title for the next three or four years.
Now that the Golden State Warriors have landed Kevin Durant, how will he fit in with their current core? Are multiple titles on the way?
And what's next for the Oklahoma City Thunder?
Our Insiders debate the future after KD's big decision.
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[h=3]1. What's your take on Durant's decision?[/h]Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: I'm happy for Kevin Durant. Playing basketball with players of your talent level is a lot of fun. It's also incredibly lucrative and probably helps his chances to win every time he steps foot into his office. Plus, it makes the NBA a whole lot more exciting.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider:Today, more than ever, athletes are judged by one thing and one thing only: the number of Z's after the word RING. There will be incredible backlash toward this decision today, tomorrow, and this season, but when the banners are hung, they'll only remember KD as a champion.
David Thorpe, ESPN Insider: I see players evolving into being the captain of their ship more often and with more power than ever before, and I applaud it wholeheartedly. When he entered the league, Durant didn't get to pick Seattle (or Oklahoma City), don't forget.
If Apple, Microsoft and Samsung all got to draft engineers after they finished one year of college, is it likely they would all stay with the first company that hired them for their entire careers? Of course not, no matter how well their company was doing or how they were excelling in their role. Such is human nature. We can never know for certain what pushed Durant to California ultimately, but I find it hard to believe he made strictly a basketball decision. He's smarter and more mature than that.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The big thing that's been left out of most KD-to-the-Warriors discourse the past few months is whether it's even a good idea in the first place. A guiding principle for a team that just won 73 games with a fairly young roster ought to have been, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." But as in Miami, maybe sheer talent will overwhelm all concerns.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I'm a little disappointed, since I think the race for the No. 1 seed next year might be over before it even begins. I'm a fan of parity and long, interesting playoff series. Durant signing with the Warriors makes those a little less likely.
Durant couldn't be certain Russell Westbrook would stay in OKC next summer, and saw a great opportunity for winning a ring when he currently has zero. I can certainly understand his decision, even though it seems like he took the easy way out.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: I'm surprised, but I hope that people don't read too much into it in terms of the need to change the collective bargaining agreement. This is a historic fluke. That said, if the league wants to make the creation of super teams more difficult and removes -- or at least increases -- maximum salaries as a result, that wouldn't be so bad.
[h=3]2. How well will Durant coexist with Steph Curry, Klay Thompsonand Draymond Green?[/h]Haberstroh: Durant was the leading scorer on the 2012 Olympics team that won gold while shooting 52 percent from downtown on a squad that featuredLeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant. I think he'll be just fine. Consult my trusty TrueHoopTV video if you have doubts.
Elhassan: There ought to be some sort of adjustment. No one will have as many shots as they did last season. But if we're being honest, Durant should probably be the No. 1 option -- as much as options can be prioritized within Golden State's free-wheeling, motion-heavy offense. Put more simply: Durant might not shoot as much as he did in Oklahoma City, but his looks will be much, much easier.
Thorpe: Those guys recruited him or he wouldn't have made this move to begin with. So he will team up great with them. I was so high on the Big 3 in Miami, even when they struggled out of the gate. I envisioned no possibility that they would fail. I see the same thing here.
More than anything -- and I cannot stress this enough -- I think the Warriors blew their title run because they ran out of gas chasing 73 wins and overcoming OKC. And I think Curry knows that. So sharing the spotlight and scoring loads with Durant all year will be a welcome sacrifice to help them get 16 playoff wins.
Doolittle: Lots of questions that are hard to answer right now: Who gets priority in closing games? Will diminished depth hurt the defense? Will Durant become passive to fit in with an established group? Will marginalized roles lead to resentment from guys like Thompson and Green?
Engelmann: I think it'll work pretty well. People bring up the Heat's Big 3 a lot when looking for historic comparisons, but the Warriors' new Big 3 (or four, really) has more diverse skill sets. All of them are shooters, and Durant and Curry are also very good at driving to the hoop. Wade and LeBron, in contrast, couldn't shoot the 3-pointer particularly well and thus had some trouble with spacing.
Pelton: It's going to be an adjustment. The Warriors are swapping out two players (Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut) who combined to use 27.3 percent of their plays last season with a shot, a trip to the free throw line or a turnover with Durant, whose usage rate in Oklahoma City was higher than that all by himself (30.6 percent).
But that's the kind of adjustment Durant has already made playing with many of these teammates for USA Basketball and will again this summer in Rio. So I think they'll figure things out relatively quickly.
[h=3]3. What's next for Oklahoma City?[/h]Haberstroh: In some ways, they're in the same boat again. Russell Westbrook is a superstar who can leave in a year, just like Durant did this year. Better make Westbrook happy, or else you have to consider trading a top-five player at the deadline, which isn't the worst thing in the world. Letting him leave for nothing is far worse.
Thorpe: To me it's very simple. They need to sit down with Russell Westbrook and determine with finality what his plans are. If he says he wants to hold meetings next summer and see what his options are, trade him. Period.
They have enough talent for a playoff appearance, but if he plans on leaving (which is what they should expect if he won't commit now), then they can look at moving him for an All-Star who needs a new home. Of course, they'll need a team willing to take Westbrook in hopes it can re-sign him.
Elhassan: The unintended consequence of Durant taking three and a half days to come to his decision is that nearly every impact free agent is off the market, leaving OKC in a precarious position. Circle the wagons around Westbrook, while featuring Enes Kanter more heavily as a primary offensive option, and explore the trade market to add assistance on the wings. It ain't pretty, but it never is when one of the best players in the league walks away.
Doolittle: Clearly the priority is to get a read on how Westbrook feels about this startling turn of events. If the Thunder determine that he's a goner, they have no choice but to deal him for the best package of draft picks and young veterans they can find. Possible Band-Aid solutions from this year's free-agent market are gone.
Engelmann: I still very much like the situation they're in -- it certainly beats the situation of about 20 other NBA teams. They have an elite player in Westbrook, one of the better centers in Steven Adams, one of the better young players in Victor Oladipo and this year's No. 11 pick in Domantas Sabonis. Things are still looking good. I'm guessing they'll be a No. 5 seed, barring any big trades to start a rebuild.
Pelton: Under Sam Presti, the Thunder haven't made a habit of losing talent with nothing in return, with this summer's trade of Serge Ibaka the latest example. So if Westbrook signals his intention to leave next summer as a free agent, I would expect Oklahoma City to explore the trade market to try to get a couple of young pieces who can join up with Adams and Oladipo as the team's new core.
[h=3]4. How many games will Golden State win next season?[/h]Haberstroh: 70. I picture the Golden State Warriors following the Cavs' footsteps and putting the car in cruise control throughout the regular season. Durant's presence makes them scarier, but it also allows Curry, Thompson or Green to rest, and still win a ton of games. That flexibility is huge.
Elhassan: Anywhere from 66 to 75. Yes, I can imagine a scenario in which they only lose seven games, but a lot of that depends on how they fill out the rest of their roster. With only the room midlevel exception and minimum deals to offer, they'll have a tough time in this thin free-agent market of finding competent, capable role players. But with Durant, Curry, Thompson, Green, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston all returning, it might not matter.
Thorpe: Hopefully they learned how hollow regular-season records are without a title at the end. So I'll say 65. The West is still loaded and they will get everyone's best again, even though they are not defending champs.
Doolittle: 65. Golden State will be in the thick of the championship race, but as with all declarations of inevitability in sports, you can't take it for granted that they will be any better than they were last season. Basketball rosters aren't additive; 1 plus 1 rarely equals 2. But hey, it'll be fun to watch.
Engelmann: I think they learned from their mistake of chasing history last season. They realized it wore them down in the playoffs. I'm guessing they'll win just enough to be the No. 1 seed, but will otherwise mostly coast. I'd put the over/under at 66 wins.
Pelton: Somewhere in the neighborhood of 70. My suspicion is the Warriors will ultimately be a better team than last season, but still win fewer games because they're unlikely to win quite so many close finishes and because there may be an adjustment period at the start of the season.
[h=3]5. How many titles will Durant win in Golden State?[/h]Haberstroh: I'd take the under on 1.5. The prisoners of the moment may want to predict a dynasty, but Durant can leave after one year, and the Warriors didn't even win it all last season. And Curry's fragility makes me nervous.
There are just too many variables in a league featuring LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Karl Anthony-Towns and an 82-game schedule.
Elhassan: Depends on how long he sticks around. But they are right there every year in which he's wearing Warriors colors, we know that much.
Thorpe: I can see two more titles. It's hard to win it all. There are five or six teams that are growing or current threats to the crown, and in this new era of players being unafraid to move to their competitors, there could be a team that catapults into the forefront in the blink of an eye.
What if Anthony Davis decides to join up with Karl-Anthony Towns? Or Westbrook goes to play with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge? So two is my number, and if I were a betting man, I'd lean toward the under.
Doolittle: One. Over the next few years, the Warriors will be a fixture in the title conversation. They already were. It's easy to imagine them winning another championship and it wouldn't be at all surprising if they won more. But it's a mistake to think the Warriors will simply run roughshod over the league for the next four years.
Engelmann: I'm going to say just one. Curry and Iguodala will be free agents next summer. I can see Curry staying, but it'll be hard to keep Iguodala -- who I think is vital to their success because of his defense -- on the roster, given that other teams can offer more money. Even if he stays, he'll be 33 years old by that point.
Pelton: I'd set the line at two and a half. And I'd probably take the over. The future is more random than we generally think it is, and perhaps we'll be surprised by another event that is as hard to foresee now as Durant signing in Golden State was a couple of years ago. Still, the Warriors are the favorites to win each title for the next three or four years.
